Have China's Carbon Emissions Peaked?

Just a year-and-a-half ago, the United States convinced the Chinese government to stick to a deadline for reversing growth in greenhouse gas emissions. This was seen as a major victory, as China produces one-fourth of the world's emissions. Even though the deadline was set for 2030, the agreement by Beijing was seen as a significant breakthrough.

Recent energy data as well as slowing Chinese development are throwing up a key question----is carbon dioxide, the main greenhouse gas, already reducing in China, one decade earlier?

This success could boost worldwide efforts to limit global warming to just 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit, or two degrees Celsius, just above pre-industrial levels. Though this has been thought to be tough, it is critical.

This would also pressurise the United States and other nations to carve out more ambitious plans to limit emissions. It would also defeat critics who tell the US not to over-commit, as they charge China of being the main culprit.

However, there are problems with the accuracy of Chinese data. In a paper published late last month by the journal Nature Climate Change, it was observed that preliminary energy information from China was not completely reliable. "The most easily available data is often insufficient for estimating emissions."

Yet, some climate researchers argue that carbon emissions from China may be reducing after it went up since 2001, when China joined the World Trade Organization. Two British researchers, Fergus Green and Nicholas Stern, put forward this happy news published last month by the journal Climate Policy.

"It is quite possible that emissions will fall modestly from now on, implying that 2014 was the peak," they wrote.

The main reason is the fall in coal emissions, which has been dropping rapidly, mainly due to its economic slowdown. China's president, Xi Jinping, has said that slower growth is the "new normal," and has been deflecting growth from heavy industry towards consumer demand and the service sector.

At eastern population centers, they have tried to fight air pollution, promoting alternative energy, including hydropower and nuclear power.

Yang Fuqiang, a senior climate and energy adviser at the Washington-based Natural Resources Defense Council, exulted that carbon emissions from China have perhaps peaked in 2014 between 9.3 billion and 9.5 billion metric tons. Emissions from China dropped by 1 to 1.5 percent last year, Mr. Yang said.

However, these are only preliminary warnings. Chinese population growth, consumption by industry and transport cannot limit the growth immediately.

"I think the total of China's carbon dioxide emissions will rise again in coming years," said Jiang Kejun, a senior researcher at the Energy Research Institute of China's main economic planning agency.

Some scientists are sure that its emissions fluctuate for many years before it declines, following the pattern of the United States before 2007.

 "If China can revise this, then I'd be very happy," Mr. Yang of the Natural Resources Defense Council said. "China would be playing a leadership role in climate change."