British Scientists Create A New Model To Predict Diseases
A team of British researchers has come up with the new model that used climate change data to predict the occurrence of zootonic diseases such as Zika and Ebola. These diseases jump from animals to humans and can cause a deadly outbreak in a relatively shorter period of time.
According to the researchers, their model is 'a major improvement in their understanding of the spread of diseases from animals to people.' The team believes that their model can be used by governments to predict a disease outbreak and prepare for it in advance. In addition, the model can be used to factor in risk when devising policies that can affect the government.
The model can be effectively used by the policy makers to assess the impact of an intervention or modifications in international and national government policies, including conversion of grassland to agricultural lands. According to researcher Kate Jones of the University College London, the model has the capability to assess the impact of global changes on a multiple diseases at the same time.
Almost 60 to 75 percent of the infectious diseases that emerge nowadays can be categorized as 'zoonotic events.' In such an event, the disease 'jumps' from an animal to humans. For example, bats carry multiple zoonotic viruses at the same time that are then transferred to humans.
There are a number of diseases that have emerged from such zoonotic viruses, including Lassa fever, Zika virus, Ebola and Rift Valley fever. These diseases are expected to spread further with the change in the climate and have affected thousands of people already all across the world.
The researchers created the model using the information from 408 different locations affected by the Lassa fever outbreak in West Africa between 1967 and 2012. The team noticed the changes in the land use, temperature, rainfall, crop yields, access to health care and behavior to come up with the model that related global climatic changes to the outbreak of a disease.
