As Turkish Economy Stutters, Polling Suggests AKP Rule in Danger

As the Turkish economy stalls, new polling suggests that the ruling AKP party may not be able to gain a majority in parliament, all but decimating the hopes of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to establish a new constitution and presidential system with him at the center.

Reuters reports that a number of key indicators of economic growth and well being in the country connecting Europe and Asia are failing to meet domestic and international expectations. The economy only grew 2.9 percent in 2014, after recording growth of more than 4 percent in 2013.

Adding to the concern is the fact that private debt in Turkey has grown 11 times what it was a decade ago.

The Turkish economy currently also consumes many more products and services from abroad than it exports, resulting in a current account deficit of more than 5 percent of GDP, further stoking worries about the overall health of the economy.

Should foreign investment slow or cease, the country would experience a painful economic adjustment. This poor economic performance has put a dent into public support for the AKP party, which governed over economic growth that saw per capita GDP grow from $3,600 to $11,000.

A separate Reuters report says that a poll taken by the organization known as SONAR says that the ruling, Islamist AKP party will not maintain its majority in parliament after the June 7 elections. If the polling holds up, it would be the first time the AKP has not had a parliamentary majority in more than a decade.

The poll predicts that the AKP will get 41 percent of the vote, while the largest opposition party, the secularist CHP, will get 26 percent of the vote. The ultranationalist MHP is expected to receive 18.1 percent of the vote, and the pro-Kurdish HDP is expected to get 10.4 percent of the vote.