Ebola Cases May Reach 1.4 Million by January, Warns CDC
The number of Ebola infections in Liberia and Sierra Leone could range between 550,000 and 1.4 million by January 2015, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said in a report, Tuesday.
However, the CDC report was based on data from late August and has not taken in to account Obama's decision to send troops to West Africa and the international surge in medical aid to Ebola affected countries.
"What the modeling shows us is that even in dire scenarios, if we move fast enough, we can turn it around," CDC Director Tom Frieden said. "And I'm confident that the most dire projections are not going to come to pass, given what we've already seen on the ground in terms of the response and what we're beginning to see in terms of some of the data coming in," he added, reports The Wall Street Journal.
Frieden said that the increased response which is happening now can stop the epidemic.
Dr. Richard Wenzel, a Virginia Commonwealth University scientist who in the past led the International Society for Infectious Diseases, said that the CDC report is incorrect as it has not taken in to account the efforts currently undertaken to stop the disease, reports the Associated Press.
Meanwhile, the World Health Organization released its own estimates on the disease Tuesday. In the article published in New England Journal of Medicine, WHO warns that 21,000 people could be infected in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone by early November. It also said the death rate was 70 percent among hospitalized patients.
Experts say that it is difficult to predict the course of the epidemic on a long term basis.
"This is a bit like weather forecasting. We can do it a few days in advance, but looking a few weeks or months ahead is very difficult," said Christopher Dye, WHO director of strategy and co-author of the study, reports AP.
